Ethiopia

In this fast-developing country, the competition for water resources is exacerbated by climatic changes, while livestock and biomass consumption are among the highest contributors to GHG emissions. Capacity development within UK's EEG program supported the creation of an AAiT-led local team of experts in energy analysis.

IAM COMPACT will expand this capacity to carry out integrated resource assessments, focusing on sustainable biomass for energy and low-carbon farming.

Ethiopia, with a population of approximately 126.5 million in 2023, stands as Africa's second most populous nation after Nigeria and exhibits rapid economic growth, estimated at 7.2% in FY2022/23. Despite this, it remains one of Africa's poorest countries, with a per capita gross national income of $1,020, aiming to attain lower-middle-income status by 2025 which would imply an income greater than $1,135 (World Bank, 2024). Over the past 15 years, Ethiopia has maintained an impressive average annual GDP growth rate of nearly 10%, largely attributed to substantial investments in public infrastructure. However, growth slowed in recent years due to various shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Although agriculture, employing over 70% of the population, remained resilient, other sectors saw slowdowns. Positive strides in poverty reduction have been made, but inequality has risen, and internal conflicts pose threats to ongoing development efforts. The government's 10-Year Development Plan, based on the 2019 Home-Grown Economic Reform Agenda, seeks to sustain growth, promote private sector involvement, enhance efficiency, and address macroeconomic challenges (World Bank, 2024).

Ethiopia has been embroiled in a civil war since late 2020, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis and stalling climate policy advancements. Despite these challenges, Ethiopia submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in July 2021, though without increasing its mitigation target ambition. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates Ethiopia's climate efforts as "Almost Sufficient," indicating they are close to a fair share of global efforts but not fully aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C (Climate Action Tracker, 2022). The updated NDC is integrated into Ethiopia’s Ten-Year Development Plan (2020) and will update the 2011 Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy, though no release date has been provided. Current projections suggest Ethiopia will exceed its unconditional and conditional NDC targets by 2030, yet these do not account for the conflict's potential impact on emissions. The IMF has projected a significant GDP growth rate drop in 2022 due to the conflict (Climate Action Tracker, 2022).

More information can be found in D6.6 – Report on drivers, barriers, and policy analysis (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.13643213)

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