Sri Lanka

This island state in South Asia joined a technical assistance programme with UNDP and UNDESA, leading to model applications across climate, land use, energy, and water.

IAM COMPACT will further expand acquired capacity, to support the country's NDC and plans for sustainable development (including climate resilience, food security, water use, hydro development, etc.). This will involve deep-dive assessments of existing policies and the current debate on climate neutrality in the country by 2050.

Sri Lanka’s geographic location and economic structure leave it highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The country experienced an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as the devastating floods and landslides in October 2023 that affected several districts (Reliefweb, 2023). Droughts have also become more frequent and severe, particularly in the dry zone, impacting agricultural productivity and livelihoods. Changes in rainfall has also introduced significant challenges for agriculture and water resources management in Sri Lanka (World Bank, 2024) further straining the nation’s economy.

The economic crisis in the country has compounded these challenges, leading to shortage of essential goods. In September 2022, the country reported the highest ever inflation rate in South Asia at 69.8% (Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 2023). Additionally, the Sri Lankan Rupee has depreciated by 80% against the US Dollar in 2022 (Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 2022). The country’s foreign exchange reserves have been slowly depleted, and the government has had difficulties importing essentials. This includes fuels, leading to extensive power outages, disruptions in transportation, and shortages of medicine impacting healthcare services across the country. The economic hardships have caused widespread social unrest, with protests erupting across the country demanding government action to address the crisis.

In 2020, LKA’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were 36.9 MtCO2e (Climate Watch, 2023). The energy sector (power, transport, buildings, other fuel combustion) contributes to ~59% while agriculture contributes to 14% of total GHG emissions constituting the leading emitting sectors of Sri Lanka. The industrial sector contribution accounted for ~8% and non-combustion emissions including waste, land-use and land-use change accounted for ~13% (Climate Watch, n.d.).

As a signatory of the Paris Agreement, Sri Lanka first submitted their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in September 2016 (Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment, 2016). The overall mitigation target was to reduce GHG emissions by 20% in the energy sector (4% unconditional, 16% conditional) and by 10% in other sectors (transport, industry, forestry, and waste) by 2030. The reductions are compared to the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario where no GHG mitigation action is taken.

The next NDC of Sri Lanka was released in July 2021 (Ministry of Environment, 2021a) which was subsequently amended in September 2021. The key amendment between the two versions was that the government of Sri Lanka ambitiously advanced the carbon neutral target from 2060 to 2050. It was highlighted that the ambitious plans to decarbonize the power sector by substantially increasing the share of renewables would have a strong impact on GHG mitigation in Sri Lanka. The latest NDC states 14.5% of GHG reductions during the 2021-2030 period from power, transport, industry, waste, forestry and agriculture. This is further facilitated by the commitment to increase the forest cover to 32% by land area by 2030.

More information can be found in D6.6 – Report on drivers, barriers, and policy analysis (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.13643213)

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