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Synergies

Conferences
Date
November 2024
Authors
Nicole van den Berg
Nikos Kleanthis
Dimitris Fotopoulos
Vassilis Stavrakas
Detlef P. van Vuuren
Synergies



Date
November 2024
Authors
Panagiotis Fragkos
Lukas Hermwille
Kostas Fragkiadakis
Dimitris Fragkiadakis
Maria-Iro Baka



Date
November 2024
Authors
Konstantinos Koasidis
Natasha Frilingou
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
George Xexakis
Jon Sampedro
Clàudia Rodés Bachs
Theo Rouhette
Russell Horowitz
Christos Petkidis
Charalambos Platias
Alexandros Nikas
Synergies



Date
November 2024
Authors
Vassilis Stavrakas
Nikos Kleanthis
Dimitris Papantonis
Alexandros Flamos
Synergies



Date
November 2024
Authors
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Jon Sampedro
Clàudia Rodés Bachs
Theo Rouhette
Russell Horowitz
Konstantinos Koasidis
Natasha Frilingou
Alexandros Nikas
Synergies



Date
November 2024
Authors
Natasha Frilingou
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Shivika Mittal
Konstantinos Koasidis
Charalampros Platias
Haris Doukas
Alexandros Nikas
Synergies



Date
November 2024
Authors
Nikos Kleanthis
Vassilis Stavrakas
Nicole van den Berg
Dimitris Fotopoulos
BinBin Pearce
Detlef P. van Vuuren
Alexandros Flamos
Synergies



Date
April 2024
Authors
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Jon Sampedro
Description

Climate change is often seen as an equity problem, as it is caused primarily by richer countries and households, while its impacts are generally expected to affect poorer countries and households significantly stronger. Climate policy aiming at mitigating these impacts, however, can also have a regressive impact on societies, unless it is designed such that the costs of mitigation are shared progressively depending on wealth differences. At the same time, historical energy transitions have often been driven by wealthy consumers demanding higher quality goods and services, which consequently grew from niche to mainstream technologies. Particularly the transportation sector is a sector difficult to decarbonise, while there are significant differences in contribution between poorer and wealthier users. This study uses a global integrated assessment model (GCAM) with 10 different income groups for each of the 32 regions to compare several decarbonisation scenarios for passenger transportation. On the one hand, implementing a general cap-and-trade policy for transport emissions, while traditionally seen as the economically optimal policy, affects poorer individuals significantly more in terms of access to transport services in a decarbonised world. On the other hand, implementing fixed caps for each country and income group, which cannot be traded with consumers at lower other income groups or countries, and are globally equal for each individual, leads to significantly higher costs for higher income individuals, but does not affect the access to transport services of poorer individuals as strongly. Also, this last alternative leads to a significantly faster take-up of modern clean technologies in transport.

Synergies



Date
November 2023
Authors
Alexandros Nikas
Natasha Frilingou
Connal Heussaff
Panagiotis Fragkos
Shivika Mittal
Jon Sampedro
Sara Giarola
Jan-Philipp Sasse
Lorenzo Rinaldi
Haris Doukas
Ajay Gambhir
Anastasis Giannousakis
Nicolò Golinucci
Konstantinos Koasidis
Matteo Vincenzo Rocco
Evelina Trutnevyte
Georgios Xexakis
Georg Zachmann
Matthew Binsted
Gokul Iyer
Brinda Yarlagadda
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Synergies



Date
November 2023
Authors
Baptiste Boitier
Alexandros Nikas
Ajay Gambhir
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alessia Elia
Khaled Al-Dabbas
Sirin Alibaş
Lorenza Campagnolo
Alessandro Chiodi
Elisa Delpiazzo
Haris Doukas
Arnaud Fougeyrollas
Maurizio Gargiulo
Pierre Le Mouël
Felix Neuner
Sigit Perdana
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Marc Vielle
Paul Zagamé
Shivika Mittal
Synergies



Date
October 2023
Authors
Natasha Frilingou
Connal Heussaff
Panagiotis Fragkos
Shivika Mittal
Jon Sampedro
Sara Giarola
Jan-Philipp Sasse
Lorenzo Rinaldi
Haris Doukas
Ajay Gambhir
Anastasis Giannousakis
Nicolò Golinucci
Konstantinos Koasidis
Matteo Vincenzo Rocco
Evelina Trutnevyte
Georgios Xexakis
Georg Zachmann
Matthew Binsted
Gokul Iyer
Brinda Yarlagadda
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Alexandros Nikas
Synergies



Date
October 2023
Authors
Baptiste Boitier
Alexandros Nikas
Ajay Gambhir
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alessia Elia
Khaled Al-Dabbas
Şirin Alibaş
Lorenza Campagnolo
Alessandro Chiodi
Elisa Delpiazzo
Haris Doukas
Arnaud Fougeyrollas
Maurizio Gargiulo
Pierre Le Mouël
Felix Neuner
Sigit Perdana
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Marc Vielle
Paul Zagamé
Shivika Mittal
Synergies



Date
June 2023
Authors
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Russell Horowitz
Jon Sampedro
Synergies


Tags
Synergies

Date
November 2022
Authors
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Panagiotis Fragkos
Faidra Filippidou
Lukas Hermwille
Wolfgang Obergassel
Leon Clarke
Ajay Gambhir
Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino
Shivika Mittal
Alexandros Nikas
Glen P. Peters
Ida Sognnaes
Synergies


Tags
Synergies

Scientific publications
Date
September 2024
Authors
Matteo Calcaterra
Lara Aleluia Reis
Panagiotis Fragkos
Thibault Briere
Harmen Sytze de Boer
Florian Egli
Johannes Emmerling
Gokul Iyer
Shivika Mittal
Friedemann Polzin
Mark Sanders
Tobias S. Schmidt
Sasha Serebriakova
Bjarne Steffen
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Detlef van Vuuren
Paul Waidelich
Massimo Tavoni
Journal
Nature Energy
Title
Reducing the cost of capital to finance the energy transition in developing countries
Short description

Climate stabilisation requires the mobilization of substantial investments in low- and zero-carbon technologies, especially in emerging and developing economies. However, access to stable and affordable finance varies dramatically across countries. Models used to evaluate the energy transition do not differentiate regional financing costs and therefore cannot study risk-sharing mechanisms for renewable electricity generation. In this study, we incorporated the empirically estimated cost of capital differentiated by country and technology into an ensemble of five climate–energy–economy models. We quantified the additional financing cost of decarbonisation borne by developing regions and explored policies of risk premium convergence across countries. We found that alleviating financial constraints benefits both climate and equity as a result of more renewable and affordable energy in the developing world. This highlights the importance of fair finance for energy availability, affordability and sustainability, as well as the need to include financial considerations in model-based assessments.

 





Date
August 2024
Authors
Andrea Saltelli
Gerd Gigerenzer
Mike Hulme
Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos
Lieke A. Melsen
Glen P. Peters
Roger Pielke Jr
Simon Robertson,
Andy Stirling
Massimo Tavoni
Arnald Puy
Journal
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
Title
Bring digital twins back to Earth
Short description

We reflect on the development of digital twins of the Earth, which we associate with a reductionist view of nature as a machine. The projects of digital twins deviate from contemporary scientific paradigms in the treatment of complexity and uncertainty, and does not engage with critical and interpretative social sciences. We contest the utility of digital twins for addressing climate change issues and discuss societal risks associated with the concept, including the twins' potential to reinforce economicism and governance by numbers, emphasizing concerns about democratic accountability. We propose a more balanced alternative, advocating for independent institutions to develop diverse models, prioritize communication with simple heuristic-based models, collect comprehensive data from various sources, including traditional knowledge, and shift focus away from physics-centered variables to inform climate action. We argue that the advancement of digital twins should hinge on stringent controls, favoring a nuanced, interdisciplinary, and democratic approach that prioritizes societal well-being over blind pursuit of computational sophistication.

 



Synergies


Date
July 2024
Authors
Alexandros Nikas
Journal
PLOS Climate
Title
Projecting progress in sustainable development goals vis-à-vis climate action in climate-economy models
Short description

The year 2015 was an important milestone in the world’s struggle for sustainability. Although mostly remembered for the landmark Paris Agreement, which formalised and operationalised a mechanism for globally coordinated and cooperative efforts to address the climate crisis, it also featured the UN-wide adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, embodied in seventeen distinct yet highly intertwined dimensions—the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These inter alia include poverty and hunger elimination, alleviating social and gender inequalities, fostering peace and the development of strong institutions, making production responsible, environmental and biodiversity protection, and achieving good health and well-being.





Date
July 2024
Authors
Jon Sampedro
Stephanie T. Waldhoff
James A. Edmonds
Gokul Iyer
Siwa Msangi
Kanishka B Narayan
Pralit L. Patel
Marshall Wise
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Title
Residential energy demand, emissions, and expenditures at regional and income-decile level for alternative futures
Short description

Income and its distribution profile are important determinants of residential energy demand and carry direct implications for human well-being and climate. We explore the sensitivity of residential energy systems to income growth and distribution across SSP-RCP scenarios using a global, integrated, multisector dynamics model, GCAM, which tracks national/regional household energy services and fuel choice by income decile. Nation/region energy use patterns across deciles tend to converge over time with aggregate income growth, as higher-income consumers approach satiation levels in floorspace and energy services. However, in some regions, existing within-region inequalities in energy consumption persist over time due to slow income growth in lower income groups. Due to continued differences in fuel types, lower income groups will have higher exposure to household air pollution, despite lower contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that the share of income dedicated to energy is higher for lower deciles, with strong regional differences.



Synergies


Date
June 2024
Authors
Panagiotis Fragkos
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Russell Horowitz
Eleftheria Zisarou
Journal
Climate
Title
Analysing the Transformative Changes of Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-Term Targets
Short description

As the imperative to address climate change intensifies, understanding the effectiveness of policy interventions becomes paramount. In the context of addressing these urgent challenges and given the inadequacy of current policies to address this issue, this study examines the extent to which Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Long-Term Targets (LTTs) can contribute to achieving ambitious climate goals. Recognizing the critical need for effective climate action, we employ the advanced modelling tools PROMETHEUS and GCAM to assess the implications of different scenarios–Current Policies (CP), Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), and combination of NDCs with Long-Term Targets (NDC_LTT)–on the future development of energy system and emission. This study, by employing these well-known models, seeks to provide an improved understanding of the impacts of NDCs on global emission trajectories and whether the integration of NDCs and LTTs can help close the gap towards Paris-compatible pathways. The study analyzes various sectors including buildings, transportation, electricity generation, and industry to provide insights into the limitations of existing policies and the potential of enhanced commitments to drive transformative changes in a global scale. The effectiveness of these policies varies across different sectors, highlighting the challenges that need to be addressed for achieving the required emission reduction targets in the medium- and long-term. Key findings indicate significant shifts in energy consumption, fuel mix, technology adoption, and emission trajectories, particularly under the synergistic action represented by the NDC_LTT scenario.



Synergies


Date
June 2024
Authors
Jon Sampedro
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Russell Horowitz
Clàudia Rodés-Bachs
Natasha Frilingou
Alexandros Nikas
Matthew Binsted
Gokul Iyer
Brinda Yarlagadda
Journal
Energy Strategy Reviews
Title
Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union
Short description

The reduction of the EU's pipeline gas imports from Russia because of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the bloc. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix and gas prices across subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas infrastructure. The restrictions also affect global gas infrastructure capacity additions, asset stranding, and trade dynamics. Our results show that the Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves the EU's resilience against a cut-off of Russian pipeline gas, while additional improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts.





Date
June 2024
Authors
Malte Meinshausen
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Kathleen Beyer
Greg Bodeker
Olivier Boucher
Josep G. Canadell
John S. Daniel
Aïda Diongue-Niang
Fatima Driouech
Erich Fischer
Piers Forster
Michael Grose
Gerrit Hansen
Zeke Hausfather
Tatiana Ilyina
Jarmo S. Kikstra
Joyce Kimutai
Andrew D. King
June-Yi Lee
Chris Lennard
Tabea Lissner
Alexander Nauels
Glen P. Peters
Anna Pirani
Gian-Kasper Plattner
Hans Pörtner
Joeri Rogelj
Maisa Rojas
Joyashree Roy
Bjørn H. Samset
Benjamin M. Sanderson
Roland Séférian
Sonia Seneviratne
Christopher J. Smith
Sophie Szopa
Adelle Thomas
Diana Urge-Vorsatz
Guus J. M. Velde
Tokuta Yokohata
Tilo Ziehn
Zebedee Nicholls
Journal
Geoscientific Model Development
Title
A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)
Short description

In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of “framing pathways” such as the so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the “Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments”, is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight the needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) umbrella, which will influence or even predicate the IPCC AR7 consideration of framing pathways. Here we suggest several policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of societal development goals. Based on this context, we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth system models should evolve towards representative emission pathways (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These framing pathways should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation plans that need to be implemented over the next 10 years. In our view, the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, as well as a higher-emission category that is approximately in line with “current policies” (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two “worlds that could have been”. One of these categories has high-emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies and the other has very-low-emission trajectories which assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that the timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. Under the Paris Agreement, for the second global stocktake, which will occur in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required by 2027. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities, including those under CMIP7.



Synergies


Date
March 2024
Authors
Jorge Moreno
Lorenza Campagnolo
Baptiste Boitier
Alexandros Nikas
Konstantinos Koasidis
Ajay Gambhir
Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino
Sigit Perdana
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Alessandro Chiodi
Elisa Delpiazzo
Haris Doukas
Maurizio Gargiulo
Andrea Herbst
Khaled Al-Dabbas
Şirin Alibaş
Felix Neuner
Pierre Le Mouël
Marc Vielle
Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Title
The impacts of decarbonization pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union
Short description

Climate action to achieve the Paris Agreement should respect the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we use an integrated assessment modelling framework comprising nine climate policy models and quantify the impacts of decarbonisation pathways on Sustainable Development Goals in the European Union at regional and national levels. We show that scenario-consistent assumptions of future socio-economic trends and current climate policies would improve energy- and carbon-related aspects of sustainability and reduce inequalities. Ambitious net-zero emissions pathways would further improve health and agricultural productivity. Furthermore, countries currently lagging in achieving sustainable development goals would see the greatest benefits from ambitious climate action. Negative socio-economic impacts from climate action on poverty, hunger, and economic growth will require specific corrective policies. While our analysis does not quantify the negative effects of less ambitious climate policy, it demonstrates where co-benefits and trade-offs of greenhouse gas mitigation and sustainable development agenda exist and can guide policy formulation.





Date
March 2024
Authors
Jan C Minx
Jerome Hilaire
Finn Müller-Hansen
Gregory Nemet
Francesca Diluiso
Robbie M Andrew
Ceren Ayas
Nico Bauer
Stephen L Bi
Leon Clarke
Felix Creutzig
Ryna Yiyun Cui
Frank Jotzo
Matthias Kalkuhl
William F Lamb
Andreas Löschel
Niccol`o Manych
Malte Meinshausen
Pao-Yu Oei
Glen P Peters
Benjamin Sovacool
Jan C Steckel
Sebastian Thomas
Annabelle Workman
John Wiseman
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Title
Coal transitions—part 2: phase-out dynamics in global long-term mitigation scenarios
Short description

A rapid phase-out of unabated coal use is essential to limit global warming to below 2 °C. This review presents a comprehensive assessment of coal transitions in mitigation scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement, using data from more than 1500 publicly available scenarios generated by more than 30 integrated assessment models. Our ensemble analysis uses clustering techniques to categorize coal transition pathways in models and bridges evidence on technological learning and innovation with historical data of energy systems. Six key findings emerge: First, we identify three archetypal coal transitions within Paris-consistent mitigation pathways. About 38% of scenarios are 'coal phase out' trajectories and rapidly reduce coal consumption to near zero. 'Coal persistence' pathways (42%) reduce coal consumption much more gradually and incompletely. The remaining 20% follow 'coal resurgence' pathways, characterized by increased coal consumption in the second half of the century. Second, coal persistence and resurgence archetypes rely on the widespread availability and rapid scale-up of carbon capture and storage technology (CCS). Third, coal-transition archetypes spread across all levels of climate policy ambition and scenario cycles, reflecting their dependence on model structures and assumptions. Fourth, most baseline scenarios—including the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs)—show much higher coal dependency compared to historical observations over the last 60 years. Fifth, coal-transition scenarios consistently incorporate very optimistic assumptions about the cost and scalability of CCS technologies, while being pessimistic about the cost and scalability of renewable energy technologies. Sixth, evaluation against coal-dependent baseline scenarios suggests that many mitigation scenarios overestimate the technical difficulty and costs of coal phase-outs. To improve future research, we recommend using up-to-date cost data and evidence about innovation and diffusion dynamics of different groups of zero or low-carbon technologies. Revised SSP quantifications need to incorporate projected technology learning and consistent cost structures, while reflecting recent trends in coal consumption.

 



Synergies


Date
February 2024
Authors
Connor McGookin
Diana Süsser
Georgios Xexakis
Evelina Trutnevyte
Will McDowall
Alexandros Nikas
Konstantinos Koasidis
Sheridan Few
Per Dannemand Andersen
Christina Demski
Patrícia Fortes
Sofia G. Simoes
Christopher Bishop
Fionn Rogan
Brian Ó Gallachóir
Journal
Energy Strategy Reviews
Title
Advancing participatory energy systems modelling
Short description

Energy system models are important tools to guide our understanding of current and future carbon dioxide emissions as well as to inform strategies for emissions reduction. These models offer a vital evidence base that increasingly underpins energy and climate policies in many countries. In light of this important role in policy formation, there is growing interest in, and demands for, energy modellers to integrate more diverse perspectives on possible and preferred futures into the modelling process. The main purpose of this is to ensure that the resultant policy decisions are both fairer and better reflect people's concerns and preferences. However, while there has been a focus in the literature on efforts to bring societal dimensions into modelling tools, there remains a limited number of examples of well-structured participatory energy systems modelling processes and no available how-to guidance. This paper addresses this gap by providing good practice guidance for integrating stakeholder and public involvement in energy systems modelling based on the reflections of a diverse range of experts from this emergent field. The framework outlined in this paper offers multiple entry points for modellers to incorporate participatory elements either throughout the process or in individual stages. Recognising the messiness of both fields (energy systems modelling and participatory research), the good practice principles are not comprehensive or set in stone, but rather pose important questions to steer this process. Finally, the reflections on key issues provide a summary of the crucial challenges and important areas for future research in this critical field.

Acknowledgements

Thanks to Andrzej Ceglarz and Amanda Schibline from the Renewables Grid Initiative for their valuable input in the workshops held. This research was funded by the Science Foundation Ireland MaREI Centre and ESB Networks under grant number 12/RC/2302/P2 and the US-Ireland R, D & D Partnership Programme funded by Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) together with the National Science Foundation under grant number 16/US-C2C/3290. It also involved researchers from H2020 ENCLUDE (GA: 101022791), EU LIFE programme JUSTEM (project ID 101076151), H2020 PARIS REINFORCE (GA: 820846), Horizon Europe IAM COMPACT (GA: 101056306), Horizon Europe DIAMOND (GA: 101081179), and the Portuguese Science Foundation FCT/MCTES (UID/04085/2020, 2020.00038. CEECIND).





Date
January 2024
Authors
Alexandros Nikas
Natasha Frilingou
Conall Heussaff
Panagiotis Fragkos
Shivika Mittal
Jon Sampedro
Sara Giarola
Jan-Philipp Sasse
Lorenzo Rinaldi
Haris Doukas
Ajay Gambhir
Anastasis Giannousakis
Nicolò Golinucci
Konstantinos Koasidis
Matteo Vincenzo Rocco
Evelina Trutnevyte
Georgios Xexakis
Georg Zachmann
Eleftheria Zisarou
Emanuela Colombo
Adam Hawkes
Brinda Yarlagadda
Matthew Binsted
Gokul Iyer
Rasmus Magni Johannsen
Jakob Zinck Thellufsen
Henrik Lund
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven
Journal
Energy
Title
Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas
Short description

Russia's invasion of Ukraine fuelled an energy crisis, which considerably impacted Europe given its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas imports. This study uses an ensemble of four global integrated assessment models, which are further soft-linked to two sectoral models, and explores the synergies and trade-offs among three approaches to living without Russian gas in Europe: (a) replacing with other gas imports, (b) boosting domestic energy production, and (c) reducing demand and accelerating energy efficiency. We find that substituting Russian gas from other trade partners would miss an opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation in end-use sectors while risking further fossil-fuel lock-ins, despite featuring the lowest gas price spikes and potentially reducing heating costs for end-users in the near term. Boosting domestic, primarily renewable, energy production on the other hand would instead require considerable investments, potentially burdening consumers. Energy demand reductions, however, could offer considerable space for further emissions cuts at the lowest power-sector investment costs; nonetheless, an energy efficiency-driven strategy would also risk relocation of energy-intensive industries, an aspect of increasing relevance to EU policymakers.




Tags
Regional modelling
Synergies
Mitigation
Interdisciplinary science

Date
December 2023
Authors
Alexandros Nikas
Ajay Gambhir
Baptiste Boitier
Journal
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition
Title
Promoting sustainable transitions across the globe requires scenario co-creation with key stakeholders
Short description

The Paris Agreement rests on individual countries and regions identifying stretching but feasible mitigation pathways. These must be acceptable and achievable in the eyes of a range of stakeholders in those countries or regions, including those from civil society, governments, and businesses. This Special Issue explores a range of feasible yet ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reduction pathways in a diversity of regions/countries of the world, in principle compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Each of these pathways have been developed using energy system models or whole-economy models, in most cases using mitigation scenarios co-created with a range of policy, civil society, academic, and business stakeholders.





Date
November 2023
Authors
Baptiste Boitier
Alexandros Nikas
Ajay Gambhir
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alessia Elia
Khaled Al-Dabbas
Şirin Alibaş
Lorenza Campagnolo
Alessandro Chiodi
Elisa Delpiazzo
Haris Doukas
Arnaud Fougeyrollas
Maurizio Gargiulo
Pierre Le Mouël
Felix Neuner
Sigit Perdana
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Marc Vielle
Paul Zagamé
Shivika Mittal
Journal
Joule
Title
A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero
Short description
The EU has committed to becoming a net-zero economy by 2050, with many member states having integrated this goal into national strategies. However, the bloc’s path toward achieving these targets remains unclear. We use five whole-system climate-economy models and two sectoral models to explore how the EU can keep net zero within reach by mid-century, offering insights into intermediate milestones and implications at sectoral and national levels. Our results indicate that a 62% emissions reduction in the Emissions Trading System and 40% in the Effort Sharing Regulation, compared with 2005 levels, are in line with cost-optimal paths toward the bloc’s 55% emissions cuts target by 2030. Bridging the gap with net zero in 2050 entails near-complete decarbonization of ETS, total decarbonization of electricity, and complete phaseout of unabated coal power by 2040, as well as rapid scale-up of negative emissions technologies and an 80% diffusion of renewables in the EU electricity mix by 2050.




Date
October 2023
Authors
Diamantis Koutsandreas
Georgios P. Trachanas
Ioannis Pappis
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
John Psarras
Journal
Energy Strategy Reviews
Title
A multicriteria modeling approach for evaluating power generation scenarios under uncertainty: The case of green hydrogen in Greece
Short description

Clean energy technological innovations are widely acknowledged as a prerequisite to achieving ambitious long-term energy and climate targets. However, the optimal speed of their adoption has been parsimoniously studied in the literature. This study seeks to identify the optimal intensity of moving to a green hydrogen electricity sector in Greece, using the OSeMOSYS energy modeling framework. Green hydrogen policies are evaluated, first, on the basis of their robustness against uncertainty and, afterwards, against conflicting performance criteria and for different decision-making profiles towards risk, by applying the VIKOR and TOPSIS multi-criteria decision aid methods. Although our analysis focuses exclusively on the power sector and compares different rates of hydrogen penetration compared to a business-as-usual case without considering other game-changing innovations (such as other types of storage or carbon capture and storage), we find that a national transition to a green hydrogen economy can support Greece in potentially cutting at least 16 MtCO2 while stimulating investments of EUR 10–13 bn. over 2030–2050.





Date
September 2023
Authors
Jakob Wachsmuth
Philine Warnke
Ajay Gambhir
Sara Giarola
Konstantinos Koasidis
Shivika Mittal
Alexandros Nikas
Kathleen Vaillancourt
Haris Doukas
Journal
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition
Title
Co-creating socio-technical scenarios for net-zero emission pathways: comparison of five national case studies
Short description

The extent to which modelled future pathways support effective policymaking for sustainability transitions has been questioned for a long time, with one major issue being the insufficient integration with the perspectives of policymakers and other stakeholders. One proposal to address this issue has been to set up facilitative dialogues with stakeholders to extend model-based pathways to socio-technical scenarios. This paper presents the results of a first series of such co-creation workshops, where stakeholders discussed bottlenecks for model-based decarbonisation pathways and ways to overcome these bottlenecks through tailored policy mixes. The workshops took place in five countries: Brazil, Canada, Greece, Germany, and the UK, each with a specific sector focus. In all five workshops, it became clear that substantial tensions exist between the “ideal” modelled decarbonisation pathways and the real-world situation on the ground. Also, adverse political framework conditions, uncertainty of future policies and resistance of powerful actors were emphasised as overarching bottlenecks in most workshops. At the same time, in several instances stakeholders pointed out important aspects of transformative trajectories that are not covered by the models. Some challenges and solutions stand out in all countries in spite of the strong diversity of contexts: allocation of capital towards massive investments into low-carbon solutions; infrastructure development for generation and transport of hydrogen, capture and use of CO2 as well as electricity grid and storage adapted to renewable energy solutions; stakeholder and citizen dialogues, where agreement is reached on cornerstones of long-term decarbonisation trajectories; and demand-side measures complementing investments into low-carbon processes.





Date
August 2023
Authors
Ajay Gambhir
Shivika Mittal
Robin D. Lamboll
Neil Grant
Dan Bernie
Laila Gohar
Adam Hawkes
Alexandre Köberle
Joeri Rogelj
Jason A. Lowe
Journal
Nature Communications
Title
Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
Short description

Understanding how 1.5 °C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5 °C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment, is critical for planning resilient pathways. We use an integrated assessment model to explore potential pathway adjustments starting in 2025 and 2030, following the arrival of new information. The 1.5 °C target remains achievable in the model, in light of some adverse information, provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available. If multiple pieces of adverse information arrive simultaneously, average annual emissions reductions near 3 GtCO2/yr for the first five years following the pathway adjustment, compared to 2 GtCO2/yr in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began. Moreover, in these scenarios of multiple simultaneous adverse information, by 2050 mitigation costs are 4-5 times as high as a no adverse information scenario, highlighting the criticality of developing a wide range of mitigation options, including energy demand reduction options.




Tags
Global modelling

Date
August 2023
Authors
Panagiotis Fragkos
Eleni Kanellou
George Konstantopoulos
Alexandros Nikas
Kostas Fragkiadakis
Faidra Filipidou
Theofano Fotiou
Haris Doukas
Journal
Studies in Energy, Resource and Environmental Economics
Title
Energy Poverty and Just Transformation in Greece
Short description

Low-income population groups often face high energy poverty risks. This phenomenon can be exacerbated through the implementation of ambitious environmental policies to achieve the energy transition—said policies, such as the application of additional taxes on energy products, may lead to regressive social and distributional impacts on low-income households thus increasing the risk of energy poverty. This study focusses on Greece and combines a qualitative analysis of the EU and Greek policy context and strategic framework for energy poverty as well as related poverty alleviation measures with a state-of-the-art model-based assessment of the equity and distributional impacts of the net-zero transition in the country. We use the GEM-E3-FIT general equilibrium model, expanded to represent ten income classes differentiated by income sources, saving rates and consumption patterns. The new modelling capabilities of GEM-E3-FIT are applied to quantify the distributional impacts of ambitious emission reduction targets and at the same time explore their effects on energy-related expenditure and energy poverty by income class in Greece. The country’s transition to climate neutrality increases modestly the income inequality across income classes, with low-income households facing the most negative effects. However, using carbon tax revenues as lump-sum transfers to support household income and as reduced social security contributions have the potential to boost employment and scale down income inequality in Greece.




Tags
Regional modelling

Date
July 2023
Authors
Ajay Gambhir
Alexandros Nikas
Journal
PLOS Climate
Title
Seven key principles for assessing emerging low-carbon technological opportunities for climate change mitigation action
Short description

The proposed framework is an intuitively obvious one, yet still serves as a climate technology-specific “checklist” to ensure that any newly proposed technologies or products can succeed. There will be continuous changes to the regulations, infrastructures, and political contexts, in which new technologies will be developed, which is why each consideration is not intended as a one-shot “yes/no” process but must rather be continuously reviewed and reconsidered in light of potentially rapid developments.



Synergies


Date
May 2023
Authors
Dirk-Jan van de Ven
Shivika Mittal
Ajay Gambhir
Robin Lamboll
Haris Doukas
Sara Giarola
Adam Hawkes
Konstantinos Koasidis
Alexandre C. Koberle
Haewon McJeon
Sigit Perdana
Glen P. Peters
Joeri Rogelj
Ida Sognnaes
Marc Vielle
Alexandros Nikas
Journal
Nature Climate Change
Title
A multi-model analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges
Short description

The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures.




Tags
Global modelling
Regional modelling
Synergies

Date
February 2023
Authors
Anastasios Karamaneas
Konstantinos Koasidis
Natasha Frilingou
Georgios Xexakis
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
Journal
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Transition
Title
A stakeholder-informed modelling study of Greece's energy transition amidst an energy crisis: the role of natural gas and climate ambition
Short description

While fossil fuel prices soar during the 2022 global energy crisis, the European Union activates all available fossil-fuel levers and Greece still plans to use natural gas as a transition fuel for delignitisation, with strong concerns over potential exacerbation of energy poverty and hurdles to progress in climate action. This study assesses the trajectory of the Greek electricity mix and its reliance on natural gas under the current policy framework on the one hand, and an ambitious scenario aiming for complete decarbonisation by 2035 on the other. We model these scenarios using an energy system modelling framework, comprising LEAP and OSeMOSYS model implementations for Greece, and use a stakeholder-informed fuzzy cognitive mapping exercise to uncover transition uncertainties. While power generation from natural gas is projected to increase by almost 50% until 2030 under existing policies, the proposed decarbonisation scenario has the potential to achieve complete independence from Russian gas by 2026 while also leading to a cleaner and considerably cheaper power sector. This ‘higher climate ambition’ scenario is found feasible and more robust in case high fossil fuel prices persist post-2022, even if bottlenecks stressed by stakeholders such as community acceptance or technological constraints emerge and potentially constrain the expansion of certain renewable energy technologies. Apart from the added value of stakeholder input in modelling science, as reflected in the impact of barriers Greek stakeholders critically highlighted, our results emphasise that a diversified energy-supply mix alongside bold energy efficiency strategies are key to rapid and feasible decarbonisation in the country.




Tags
Regional modelling
Interdisciplinary science
Transdisciplinary science

Date
December 2022
Authors
Jarmo S. Kikstra
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls
Christopher J. Smith
Jared Lewis
Robin D. Lamboll
Edward Byers
Marit Sandstad
Malte Meinshausen
Gidden
Joeri Rogelj
Elmar Kriegler
Glen P. Peters
Jan S. Fuglestvedt
Ragnhild B. Skeie
Bjørn H. Samset
Laura Wienpahl
Detlef P. van Vuuren
Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst
Alaa Al Khourdajie
Piers M. Forster
Andy Reisinger
Roberto Schaeffer
Keywan Riahi
Journal
Geoscientific Model Development
Title
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures
Short description

While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task in WGIII is to assess the global mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the challenge that the emissions scenarios from different integrated assessment models (IAMs) come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth system models. In this work, we describe the “climate-assessment” workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as applied to 1202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing (ERF) characteristics of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2 and MAGICCv7.5.3 and use the CICERO simple climate model (CICERO-SCM) for sensitivity analysis. We discuss the implied overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years and look at emissions and temperature characteristics of scenarios compatible with one possible interpretation of the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of emissions scenarios that limit global warming to “1.5 ∘C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot” includes 97 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3 and 203 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, “limited overshoot” typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1 ∘C for up to a few decades before returning to below 1.5 ∘C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios in this category that comply with three criteria for being “Paris-compatible”, including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, median temperatures decline by about 0.3–0.4 ∘C after peaking at 1.5–1.6 ∘C in 2035–2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for SR1.5 and discuss their implications. This article also introduces a “climate-assessment” Python package which allows for fully reproducing the IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work provides a community tool for assessing the temperature outcomes of emissions pathways and provides a basis for further work such as extending the workflow to include downscaling of climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts.




Tags
Global modelling

Date
December 2022
Authors
Sigit Perdana
Georgios Xexakis
Konstantinos Koasidis
Marc Vielle
Alexandros Nikas
Haris Doukas
Ajay Gambhir
Annela Anger-Kraavi
Elin May
Ben McWilliams
Baptiste Boitier
Title
Expert perceptions of game-changing innovations towards net zero
Short description

Current technological improvements are yet to put the world on track to net-zero, which will require the uptake of transformative low-carbon innovations to supplement mitigation efforts. However, the role of such innovations is not yet fully understood; some of these ‘miracles’ are considered indispensable to Paris Agreement-compliant mitigation, but their limitations, availability, and potential remain a source of debate. We evaluate such potentially game-changing innovations from the experts' perspective, aiming to support the design of realistic decarbonisation scenarios and better-informed net-zero policy strategies. In a worldwide survey, 260 climate and energy experts assessed transformative innovations against their mitigation potential, at-scale availability and/or widescale adoption, and risk of delayed diffusion. Hierarchical clustering and multi-criteria decision-making revealed differences in perceptions of core technological innovations, with next-generation energy storage, alternative building materials, iron-ore electrolysis, and hydrogen in steelmaking emerging as top priorities. Instead, technologies highly represented in well-below-2°C scenarios seemingly feature considerable and impactful delays, hinting at the need to re-evaluate their role in future pathways. Experts' assessments appear to converge more on the potential role of other disruptive innovations, including lifestyle shifts and alternative economic models, indicating the importance of scenarios including non-technological and demand-side innovations. To provide insights for expert elicitation processes, we finally note caveats related to the level of representativeness among the 260 engaged experts, the level of their expertise that may have varied across the examined innovations, and the potential for subjective interpretation to which the employed linguistic scales may be prone to.




Tags
Synergies

Date
December 2022
Authors
Ida Sognnaes
Title
What can we learn from probabilistic feasibility assessments?
Short description

In a new paper in Nature Energy, Odenweller et al. use uncertainty analysis to derive a probabilistic feasibility space for green hydrogen supply. Their analysis shows that even if electrolysis capacity grows as fast as wind and solar power have done, green hydrogen supply will remain scarce in the short term and uncertain in the long term.




Tags
Synergies