Publications
Deliverables
Public reports produced by the consortium in the context of the project, as part of its mission.
To underpin climate policymaking with authoritative scientific processes and results for the post-2030 period and enhance the science-policy interface, the IAM COMPACT website will serve according to the DoA, as a constant node aiming to present information on the project and disseminate its results as well as a reference site with material and links related to climate action and sustainable development, relevant consortia, and projects. The website’s development is essential to the effective promotion of the project concept, progress, activities, results, and stakeholder engagement. The project’s progress and results will be published online. The visual identity of IAM COMPACT will convey the message on what the project is about and will communicate objectives, methods, and expected results to stakeholders.
The purpose of this document is to describe the visual identity and the website of the IAM COMPACT project, which is part of Task 1.2 ‘Creating the IAM COMPACT visual identity & website’ activities. Dissemination tools, including information and communication means such as the logo, flyer, leaflet, poster, roll-up, and presentation are presented.
The visual identity and the materials presented on the website will be updated as the project needs evolve.
The Quality Management Plan defines the quality policy and plan to be applied in the IAM COMPACT project. Its purpose is to establish the roles, procedures, metrics, and tools necessary to ensure that the IAM COMPACT project is implemented smoothly and that all project deliverables are of high quality and of scientific added value and that they are submitted to the EC services in time. Complying with the quality management procedures falls under the responsibility of the Project Coordinator, the Project Manager, the Quality Manager, the Work Package leaders and the Task leaders.
This report can be used for internally reviewing the project’s progress and as a reference point for project partners on their tasks’ completion regarding the agreed conditions by the consortium.
Ensuring the policy-relevant output is a fundamental aim of IAM COMPACT. This document outlines a stakeholder engagement plan that can facilitate knowledge sharing and collaboration between modellers and stakeholders to achieve these aims. The key objectives of stakeholder engagement in the project are to ensure policy relevance, share knowledge and enhance trust between modellers and stakeholders, and provide direct inputs from stakeholders to make modelling socially and politically realistic.
The core of the stakeholder engagement plan will revolve around the policy response mechanism, a structured format for engagement between project partners and stakeholders. The stakeholders for IAM COMPACT will be selected from a stakeholder pool, managed by project partner Bruegel, building upon Bruegel’s contacts from previous similar projects. A variety of engagement techniques will be employed, including but not limited to bilateral interviews, workshops, and public events.
Bruegel will lead the operation of the policy response mechanism, in collaboration with all project partners. The process will involve two co-creative cycles, each comprising: selection of stakeholders from the project database, co-creation with stakeholders of a policy-relevant research agenda for two modelling iterations, refinement and updating of the research questions after the first iteration, discussion and feedback on modelling results, and finally the dissemination of the policy recommendations based on the research outputs.
Engagement and the exchange of knowledge between researchers and stakeholders is a fundamental part of IAM COMPACT. This deliverable summarises the results of the initial meetings with policy steering groups for the first iteration within the first modelling cycle, providing details of who attended, what topics were discussed, and the initial research questions that arose from the engagements. Background information on the Policy Response Mechanism, the central instrument of the IAM COMPACT stakeholder engagement strategy, is also provided, as well as the next steps for the project.
IAM COMPACT incorporates the views of stakeholders in its modelling work throughout the project via a structured stakeholder engagement strategy. The discussions and outcomes of a series of meetings with high-level policymakers are summarised in this deliverable. The goal of the meetings was to get feedback from stakeholders on the first round of modelling carried out in the project, as well as discuss the policy priorities and associated policy-relevant research questions that IAM COMPACT should explore in the second cycle of the policy response mechanism.
Stakeholders were engaged in a series of structured, sequential steps to provide feedback and co-create modelling scenarios in collaboration with IAM COMPACT modelling teams, following the Policy Response Mechanism process. Stakeholders were grouped by research theme within the EU, and by region outside of the EU.
The first phase of stakeholder engagement was to meet with Policy Steering Groups, consisting primarily of high-level policymakers, and understand the policy priorities for each research theme and region. Research questions from these meetings were used to create a number model-feasible research studies.
The second phase of stakeholder engagement involved the Core Working Groups, consisting of technical policymakers, industry analysts, and civil society policy experts, to discuss research studies in detail and seek feedback from stakeholders.
The four research themes for categorising the stakeholder engagement within the EU are Optimal Transition’; ‘Industry and Innovation’; ‘Global Effects’; and ‘Behavioural Change’. The seven non-EU regions include the United States of America, China, India, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Kenya, and Ethiopia.
Lessons learned from the stakeholder engagement process to date in IAM COMPACT included taking a more structured strategy to reach out to high-level stakeholders, refining online workshop approaches, and clearly defining the expected inputs from stakeholders. The next steps in stakeholder engagement will be to share initial modelling results with stakeholders for feedback before a second iteration of modelling, with final results then published in a policy brief for each theme and region.
I2AM PARIS is an open data exchange platform for climate and energy policy modelling, developed by the Horizon 2020 PARIS REINFORCE project. Drawing from the current capabilities of the platform, this report provides a summary of platform improvements in the context of the IAM COMPACT project. Notably, efforts will be placed in adding validity checks for modelling data that is uploaded to the platform and providing an indication of whether modelling results are credible by comparing them with relevant benchmarks such as the vetting criteria from IPCC AR6 WGIII. We will also develop user-friendly interfaces for data input, allowing modellers from other projects to easily interact with, and add new modelling and scenario information to, the platform. Existing components of the platform will be also improved in term of functionalities. New model documentation will be added, while the existing documentation will be updated, emphasising interpretability by non-experts. In this direction, we will also create a component with videos and training material for new modellers. Finally, the representation of sectoral models will be enhanced in existing components, while new result workspaces will be created to showcase the outcomes of the project’s modelling exercises.
This report documents the first version of the Open Data Management Plan (DMP) of IAM COMPACT. The DMP is a dynamic framework that will be maintained and modified throughout the project. It currently provides information on data description, a data sharing methodology and resource allocation to achieve Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data, and details on how the project will ensure data security and adherence to ethical standards. Besides this report, IAM COMPACT will be using the ARGOS service of OpenAIRE and EUDAT to deliver a machine-actionable data management plan (maDMP). The maDMP will be continuously updated with metadata for project datasets that will be generated from project activities. The DMP report will also be updated at the end of the project (D3.3).
Linking models to other models provides a way of expanding the boundaries of the analysis, but often requires solving difficult problems and even after that comes with trade-offs. This deliverable provides an analysis starting from how different models and their capabilities are characterised, then uses such model typologies to link IAM COMPACT models to the preliminary research questions collected in the stakeholder mechanism before finishing with a discussion about the various issues that should be considered when designing the linking strategy. The aim of this work is to feed into the next steps of the scenario and research question development process, and to the development of a generalised model linking process flow for the second modelling cycle.
This report documents the first version of the Open Science Protocols of IAM COMPACT. First, it includes a detailed description of the state-of-art of open science practices along with a presentation of the FAIR and TRUST principles, highlighting their novelties and limitations while exemplifying their usages. Second, it describes the required infrastructure to facilitate the application of open science principles by enabling code sharing, data storage, and user-friendly documentation. Finally, the report contains a protocol for the consortium members to facilitate the integration of the FAIR and TRUST principles, to promote the smooth interconnection of the models, and to transparently manage the produced outcomes.
I2AM PARIS is an open data exchange platform for climate and energy policy modelling, developed by the Horizon 2020 PARIS REINFORCE project. This report provides a summary of implemented and planned platform improvements in the context of the IAM COMPACT project, following up on the strategy documented in the I2AM PARIS Upgrade Plan (D3.1), delivered in the beginning of the project. Notably, efforts have been placed on adding validity checks for modelling data that is uploaded to the platform and providing an indication of whether modelling results are plausible by comparing them with relevant benchmarks such as the vetting criteria from IPCC AR6 WGIII. Existing components of the platform have also been improved in terms of functionalities. New model documentation has been added, while the existing documentation has been updated, emphasising interpretability by non-experts. In this direction, we have also created a component with videos and additional training material for new modellers. In terms of future improvements, we also plan to develop user-friendly interfaces for data input, allowing modellers from other projects to easily interact with, and add new modelling and scenario information to, the platform. Finally, the representation of sectoral models is planned to be enhanced, while new result workspaces to be created to showcase the outcomes of the project’s modelling exercises.
This report outlines the first flow of activities carried out under Work Package 4, Task 4.1, to produce guidelines to translate policy needs into scenario frameworks, by understanding the different types of climate and sustainability policies, and how they can be represented in the modelling of mitigation scenarios within the consortium. This involves categorising and linking policy questions to the IAM COMPACT modelling ensemble. The report begins by reviewing the relevant literature and establishing a set of policy types and categories. The consortium's models are then analysed to assess how policy needs can be best represented from a modelling perspective. Next, the preliminary policy questions provided by stakeholders in the context of the IAM COMPACT Policy Response Mechanism (PRM) within WP2 are explained, classified, and clustered as a first step to represent them into models and translate them into scenarios. Finally, the report concludes with a proposal of a process to follow for matching policy needs with modelling frameworks as a guideline for forthcoming work, which will include the formulation of a policy catalogue (MS9), the grouping of interrelated policy questions into common scenario logics, examining policy-model matching, and addressing synergies and trade-offs.
This report will be used as guidance for all modelling work taking place to address research questions in the first modelling cycle of IAM COMPACT. It, furthermore, points forward to further work on harmonisation and management of model inputs and outputs that will be undertaken during 2023 and early 2024. It also describes the role of a broad scenario logic and harmonisation of assumptions and input data in general and can thus be useful for other projects that will investigate a similarly diverse set of research questions or employ a similarly diverse set of models as IAM COMPACT.
This deliverable contains updates to and expansion of deliverable D4.3, ‘Broad Scenario Logic’. A broad scenario logic is understood as a set of assumptions and harmonised data that serve as a default background for different research questions in the project and the modelling studies that address those research questions. Each study supplements the broad scenario logic with a specific and more complete scenario protocol and, if necessary, can override any part of the broad scenario logic to address the given research question.
The deliverable expands on the first version of the logic (D4.3) by describing the harmonisation that took place in the 1st modelling cycle of IAM COMPACT after D4.3 was submitted, and by specifying updates and changes to the harmonisation data that was given in D4.3. The updated harmonisation data is intended for use in the 2nd modelling cycle. The deliverable also describes and discusses the results of a qualitative survey that was conducted with the participants in the 1st modelling cycle to elicit feedback and suggestions for changes to D4.3, and which motivated some of the changes made. Finally, it provides some clarifications on output formats and requirements for model results.
The IAM COMPACT model ensemble was strategically selected to be flexible enough to allow for the assessment of emerging issues in response to urgent policy needs. An early modelling exercise aimed to provide quick insights into the energy supply crisis in Europe, by exploring the trade-offs among different approaches to replacing Russian gas in the bloc, aiming to understand and quantify their implications to energy sustainability, affordability, and emissions within the EU.
Emerging questions aside, the project builds on a detailed, multi-step policy response mechanism that co-defines the most pertinent policy questions with EC and national policymakers, groups these questions into Studies, co-designs a scenario framework and a series of critical aspects that the consortium is expected to explore, before carrying out modelling analyses aimed at addressing these questions, revisiting them, and co-creating policy prescriptions. As part of the first policy response mechanism cycle, seven such studies were put together, each documented in different deliverables; to address each, however, a common baseline must be defined, one that considers a reference scenario reflecting current policies, near-term pledges, and longer-term commitments. This deliverable thus documents this exercise, by analysing the trajectory of global CO2 emissions considering current mitigation efforts, including updated policies, NDCs for 2030, and new long-term strategies that were put in place in the run-up to or after COP26.
The deliverable finally includes a set of mitigation scenarios for major emitting nations, namely India, China, and the USA, co-created with stakeholders as part of this first policy response mechanism cycle.
Four in-depth analyses of sectoral and cross-sectoral issues, conducted as part of the first Policy Response Mechanism cycle (PRM-1) of the IAM COMPACT project, are presented in this deliverable:
- A study focussing on potential relocation of the EU steel industry to other world regions because of high energy and CO2 prices in the EU; the associated impacts on costs, CO2 emissions, energy demand, and employment are assessed for three scenarios, and five different models including three integrated assessment models (IAMs), one sectoral bottom-up model, and one Input – Output (I/O) model have been (soft-) linked
- A study analysing the impacts of implementing an increasing amount of wind and solar power technologies in terms of raw material demand; the analysis covers four global regions, including the EU, while results from one IAM regarding renewables upscaling have been processed with another model to derive raw material demands
- A study analysing the capacity and flexibility requirements of future electricity systems to meet carbon neutrality for the case of Greece, which soft-links a cost-optimising energy system model with a short-term power system model and analyses two scenarios for a carbon-neutral Greek electricity system up to 2050.
- A study addressing the uptake of small-scale PV by the residential sector in Greece, using an agent-based model to analyse how consumers’ investing behaviour affects the adoption of small-scale PV systems by 2030 by comparing the effects of different policies; uncertainty about the effects of policies that emerges from agents’ adoption behaviour is quantified and presented.
This IAM COMPACT Deliverable, D4.9, presents three studies related to the European sub-national and sectoral deep dives into questions of climate change mitigation, air pollution co-benefits and regional inequalities, energy security and resilience, and policy assessment. The first study quantifies air quality and health impacts of 250 mitigation scenarios in the European electricity sector in 2035 across 296 NUTS-2 sub-national regions. It shows that the direct PM2.5 concentrations attributable to electricity generation could be reduced by 45% to 99%, if Europe follows a net zero emissions goal as compared to a reference system. The most vulnerable regions (Balkans, North-West Germany, Southeast France, and the West Midlands in England) would benefit from higher air quality co-benefits than the continental average. The second study, conducted as part of the first IAM COMPACT Policy Response Mechanism (PRM), uses a multi-model approach for Greece and the European Union and shows that the energy transition necessitates diversification from energy security and flexibility perspectives, combining dispatchable and variable generation, flexible demands, and energy storage. The third study, also part of the 1st PRM cycle of the project, uses a multi-model approach for the Greek power and residential sectors and shows the need to accelerate investments in variable renewable generation and energy storage and to phase out natural gas between 2037 and 2044. The required renovation rate in Greece should reach 2.5% to 3.5% of the housing stock per year with the focus on electrification rather than natural gas as a transition fuel.
This report first documents the development of a comprehensive database of green recovery packages globally, using data from reputational well-established sources, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Global Recovery Observatory, and the Energy Policy Tracker, and covering 105 countries representing more than 90% of global GDP, with green recovery funds totaling about 2.4 trillion USD and including 2109 unique policies and measures. Subsequently, using said database, this report also documents the analysis of the energy system and emissions impact of green recovery packages across energy supply and demand sectors, using three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs): PROMETHEUS, GCAM, and TIAM. Utilising data gathered from the developed green recovery packages database, which is described in this report, four scenarios were developed to examine the impacts of green recovery funding at a global scale as well as with an additional focus on three major emitters (China, Europe, and India) under different policy contexts. The findings emphasise the positive role of green recovery packages in facilitating the transition to a low-carbon economy. However, it also underscores that, while these packages support innovation and specific national contexts, additional and robust climate policies are imperative to bridge the substantial investment gap for a net-zero transition and achieve the Paris Agreement goals effectively. Finally, this deliverable includes a national deep dive of green recovery spending in Greece.
The task associated with this report aims to provide sustainable decarbonisation pathways, including biodiversity, materials, and biophysical limits, as well as place climate action as a cross-cutting theme across the sustainability spectrum. It aligns climate action and sustainable development by assessing integrated co-benefits of climate-neutral pathways and policies targeting different SDGs. IAM-driven pathways have limited coverage of SDGs and are mostly focused on climate action, energy efficiency, industry, and infrastructure, while other environmental and social dimensions are rarely assessed. Thus, we analyse the capabilities of each IAM COMPACT model to represent SDGs, creating a suitable quantitative framework that facilitates their evaluation. We emphasise synergistic effects among SDGs, by detecting barriers to and co-benefits of specific goals, assessing model weaknesses and potential improvements to fill gaps and reinforce modelling capacity, and providing feedback on measures targeting multiple SDGs.
We then focus on models’ capacity to analyse energy, land, and material resources, biophysical limits, aspects of global biodiversity conservation, and nature restoration. By developing a set of biodiversity indicators, a policy package is created to affect the indicators and produce scenarios that are simulated with the goal of gaining a deeper understanding of biodiversity, material resources, and biophysical limits.
Finally, we synthesise the previous sections and develop a multi-level integration of IAMs and uncertainty analysis with quantified implications for multiple SDGs. We draw from relevant SDG indicators extracted from IAMs, a novel multi-objective optimisation process, and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis.
This document details the CDE plan to be employed for the entire duration of IAM COMPACT. It outlines both the centrally led outreach activities and tools developed to ensure the efficient uptake and replication of the IAM COMPACT outcomes, and the decentralised efforts to be applied towards reaching and involving all interested actors and target groups through each partner’s stakeholder engagement process and contacts. In doing so, it provides clear guidance that considers “why”, “who”, “what”, “when”, and “how” to engage, as well as the promotional and informational materials that are fundamental for project outreach, and the measures to assess the successful implementation of the CDE activities.
A consolidated CDE plan, able to ensure high academic excellence and practical usability, is considered key in the project’s effort to maximise the impact of its results and their use in policymaking towards supporting the Paris Agreement goals and NDC pledges. All corresponding CDE activities lie at the core of the project, as reflected in the “Explaining” pillar (policy analysis, capacity development, communication, dissemination, exploitation), aiming to establish a two-way science-policy/-society dialogue in a timely manner and via the best means available.
This document is the first update to the initial CDE plan, which was issued at the beginning of the project and detailed the strategy to be followed (D6.1). Its purpose is to describe and evaluate the actions undertaken so far for maximising the impact of IAM COMPACT and for supporting proactive engagement with different stakeholder groups, considering “why”, “who”, “what”, “when”, and “how” to engage. To fulfil these objectives, different means for communication and dissemination have been established alongside activities for meaningfully involving target audiences in knowledge co-creation with the goal to enhance the legitimacy of the scientific process and to improve the transparency and uptake of the produced scientific outcomes and modelling results.
Overall, the IAM COMPACT CDE activities are on track, following the initial plan laid out in the Grant Agreement and the first version of the CDE plan. The focus is placed on reiterating and strengthening the entire consortium's commitment to actively contributing to and boosting the impact and the exploitation potential of IAM COMPACT.
To disseminate obtained, processed, and accumulated knowledge for scientific debate and progress, IAM COMPACT has engaged in sharing its scientific insights in numerous high-impact journals and conferences. As the project aims to inform policy choices, we have transposed highly technical modelling results into legible policy recommendations in the form of timely publications of policy briefs, articles, and commentaries in multiple media outlets for stakeholders, policymakers, businesses, and civil society actors, as well as have created a series of infographics and educational videos to promote capacity building and comprehensibility of modelling by all stakeholders at all scales.
By January 2024, IAM COMPACT had produced 20 scientific publications in highly esteemed scientific journals, 1 book chapter, and 12 posters/papers in academic conferences. Regarding its policy outreach, it has already published 2 policy briefs, 5 press releases, and 8 newsletters. In an endeavour to create awareness with stakeholders and provide open access self-learning training materials, the project has also uploaded 21 videos demonstrating each modelling ensemble, accompanied by 21 slide packs, and 10 infographics. Towards informing a wider audience on climate, environment, energy, biodiversity, and sustainability aspects related to the project, we have also engaged in science communication in various media outlets, with 11 articles/commentaries. Finally, we have participated in 5 policy events and 12 policy/capacity building workshops, aiming to increase the outreach of the project’s outputs and enhance cooperation and mutual learning.
Overall, the significance of the project’s scientific and policy outeach is in line with its pathways towards outcomes and impact.
The goal of this report is to create concrete understanding of mitigation barriers, enablers, and trends toward NDC implementation within inter-related political, social, economic, structural, technological, and individual changes, by performing a deep dive into critical sectors. To this end, the report synthesises the latest available scientific knowledge on mitigation enablers, barriers, and suitable policy options from a universal perspective. The report is based on a document analysis relying on past and upcoming IPCC reports as well as other authoritative sources. It focuses on five key sectors: Industry, Energy, Transport, Buildings, and AFOLU. The global synthesis is intended to inform the analysis of four country case studies, namely Ethiopia, Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Ukraine. It also elaborates policy options available to leverage potentials and overcome challenges, paying due attention to country-specific conditions, thereby allowing the discussion of strategies that can help effectively overcome obstacles and enhance NDCs and their implementation.
Task 6.5 of IAM COMPACT focuses on building technical and institutional capacity for integrated assessment modelling in four countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Ukraine. National teams led the capacity development and model creation efforts within and beyond their institutions. Five open-access models were developed to address key policy questions in each country, where such insights have been limited.
In Ethiopia, a geospatial electrification model using OnSSET was created to identify cost-effective ways to provide insights on technically feasible and least-cost pathways for electrifying the remaining part of the population. Additionally, a Climate, Land, Energy, Water systems (CLEWs) model using OSeMOSYS was developed to improve integrated resource management, to be then linked to MicroGridsPy in a future update to support Ethiopia’s sustainable development. Kenya's CLEWs model examines renewable energy's role in enhancing climate-resilient food, energy, and water supplies. The development of this model in IAM COMPACT links to a wider interest across several EU- and UK-funded initiatives. In Sri Lanka, a CLEWs model was designed to explore the balance between agricultural and energy development given land constraints, based on literature and stakeholder inputs. For Ukraine, an energy system model was created to guide the Ministry of Energy in developing green post-war reconstruction strategies for electricity infrastructure.
Several models build upon previous modelling efforts, in line with the aim of making use of the existing capacity and expanding it. The key data sources for all models are documented on Zenodo[1], together with the models’ executables.
This milestone consists of a set of open access training and teaching material developed collaboratively, licensed under CC BY 4.0, and available on IAM COMPACT’s Zenodo repository.
The material is in the form of pptx files and includes the following presentations (divided by concept):
- Introduction to energy (and electrification) modelling; DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10715685
- Introduction to OnSSET; DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10719078
- Minigrid modelling; DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10719106
- Use of energy system models and scenarios in policy – Case studies; DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10719111
- Introduction to input-output analysis; DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10719139
- Input-output analysis hands-on; DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10719152
- Energy-economy modelling case studies; DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10719167
- Integrated resource modelling and examples; DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10719192
- Designing scenarios; DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10719218