CCRC Seminar Series: Navigating the unexpected - The impact of disruptive events on mitigation scenarios
Our colleague, Dr Alaa Al Khourdajie (Research Fellow, Imperial College London, UK) will present his study "Navigating the unexpected: The impact of disruptive events on mitigation scenarios" as part of CCRC Seminar Series.
When: Wednesday 17 Dec 2025
1:00 pm – 2:00 pm
Where: CCRC seminar room & online
Please register here if attending online
Abstract:
Climate mitigation scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) typically assume smooth, predictable transitions, leaving them ill-equipped to assess the impacts of disruptive events. Here we introduce the Disruptive Events-Resilient Pathways (DERP) framework, a methodology that maps mitigation pathways along two dimensions: Mitigation Action Ambition and Resilience to Socioeconomic Impacts. The framework employs narrative-based societal archetypes to systematically explore how different resilience capacities shape mitigation strategies under disruption. Our application to stylised heatwave and technological disruptions reveals that socioeconomic resilience is a precondition for a capital-efficient transition, that a myopic focus on single technologies creates hidden vulnerabilities by delaying structural change, and that a diversified, resilient strategy can hedge against these risks at little to no additional cost. The DERP framework is therefore a valuable diagnostic tool, advancing scenario analysis to a new frontier by considering long-term transition dynamics alongside the resilience required to navigate disruptions.
